Chicago Blackhawks for Dummies and Game Prediction
Given the odd ending to the 2019/2020 NHL season, and the even odder playoffs that followed in the middle of the summer, it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise to many NHL fans across the globe that the 2020/2021 season will have its own complications and abnormalities.
A shortened season, only 56 games, pales in comparison on a scale of abnormality when compared to the new divisions that will dictate opponents and playoff chances for this season only. Most NHL executives remain optimistic that the 2021/2022 NHL season should feature a return to almost entirely normal.
In the meantime, new divisions mean new opponents. It wasn’t always the way, but fans have gotten used to the idea of their favorite team facing off against each team in the league on at least two occasions, with inner-conference and inner-division opponents and rivals being more frequent opponents.
This year, however, until teams make it relatively deep into the playoffs, teams will only face the other teams within their division. Being part of the Central division, Detroit will be facing off against the other seven teams (Carolina Hurricanes, Chicago, Columbus Blue Jackets, Dallas, Florida, Nashville, Tampa Bay) eight times each throughout the season, with the top four teams in the Division at season’s end given a playoff berth.
Of the seven other teams in the division, only Florida and Tampa Bay join the Red Wings as familiar opponents from the Atlantic Division that Detroit has called home since the 2013/2014 NHL season. Given that’s it been ten months since Red Wings hockey, what does each new Divisional Rival have in store for Detroit?
Let’s take a deeper look in this brief series, Central Opponents for Dummies, continuing with Detroit’s third opponent of the 2020/2021 season: The Chicago Blackhawks.
2021 Chicago Blackhawks vs Detroit Red Wings
Renewing what feels like an ancient rivalry in what I've dubbed "The 2021 Basement Bowl", Detroit and Chicago both are far cries of their former cup-winning selves.
Chicago made the playoffs last season by defeating the Edmonton Oilers in the qualifying round, only to receive a somewhat embarrassing wake-up call in the first actual round of the playoffs against the Vegas Golden Knights, who dispatched the Hawks with apparent ease.
Chicago's core got old seemingly overnight, and poorly constructed trades took a sizable chunk out of their ability to remain in some form of contention. Brandon Saad came and went, came back, and went again. Unfortunately for Hawks fans, Patrick Kane can't seem to carry the team all by himself.
In recent years they lost Artemi Panarin, Brandon Saad (again), and the once prominent goaltender Corey Crawford left the organization for New Jersey before retiring just prior to the season's start.
Captain "Serious" Toews is out indefinitely, leaving the Blackhawks in some serious trouble.
Their goalie situation is startlingly bad so far into the season. Malcolm Subban and Kevin Lankinen have both started one game and have posted far below average numbers through both. Collin Delia, through two starts, has posted equally embarrassing numbers. It might seem like a bit of shade to throw here, but none of the three goalies currently rotating as starters for Chicago would even make Detroit's taxi squad.
The Hawks are the only team in the league without a single win, not counting Dallas who has yet to play a game.
Although the Blackhawks' home in The United Center has a rich history, the only history Chicago fans are likely to see set there this season is a historically bad team. Think 2019/2020 Red Wings bad.
Roster comparisons favor Detroit in seemingly every category, assuming the Wings can overcome the current scuffle with COVID-protocol.
Defense Comparisons
On the defensive side of things, Chicago is one of the very few teams that Detroit honestly has a claim to be better than. Duncan Keith highlights Chicago's defensive unit as he has for over a decade. He has a team-leading four points (all assists) through the first four games of Chicago's season.
At 37 years of age, however, his performance can't truly be counted upon as in days past. Next up is the youngster Adam Boqvist who has a promising career ahead of him, but with little support in his own end likely won't have that prolific of a season this year.
Detroit's defense, highlighted by Filip Hronek, is arguably better and deeper than Chicago's, a sentiment that Wings fans would be hard-pressed to contradict.
Goalies Comparisons
In the net, favor is laughably in Detroit's corner. Thomas Greiss and Jonathan Bernier form one of the more formidable tandems in the Central Division, albeit neither have the sheer star power of some of the designated starters in the division.
Chicago on the other hand doesn't seem to know who their true starter is as of yet, and none of the three options deployed so far seem to be feasible. In fairness the lackluster squad that Chicago is icing this season did have to open against Tampa Bay, who are never kind to opposing goaltender's stats. Even so, the goaltending advantage against Chicago clearly goes to Detroit and it isn't particularly close.
Forward Comparisons
Detroit has a fair amount of issues on the offensive end. Bobby Ryan's emergence as his former goal-scoring self has served the Wings well so far, but he's going to need support. Detroit's chemistry will build over time and the offense should build as a result of that. On paper, however, Detroit has a better offense than Chicago.
It is safe to assume that Anthony Mantha, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Dylan Larkin will find their scoring touch on a fairly regular basis. For the team to find wins, they’re going to need to see more secondary production.
There isn’t a specific name that needs to step up, but from the perspective of an average, we could expect to see more scoring at some point. Why? Well, right now, the Red Wings have a season-long shooting percentage of 6%, even though the league average is 9.8% (provided by Hockey Reference).
Some of that newfound (maybe unpredictable) scoring could be found in the newly recalled Givani Smith. Making his season debut, this will be Smith’s 22nd NHL game after putting up 2 goals and 3 points last season.
Even with a minimal increase in production and making a small step into the 8 or 9% range, the Red Wings will look considerably stronger. If there is a team that could bring that out of them, it’s Chicago.
Chicago's offense is highlighted by Patrick Kane, who despite off-ice issues will likely go down as one of the greatest Americans to ever play the game. Alex DeBrincat, despite his relatively tiny stature, is the next best thing Chicago has to offer in terms of point production for forwards. The young forward from Farmington Hills, Michigan, has two goals through four games thus far and isn't so far removed from his 41 goal campaign in 2018/2019.
The true problem is after those two skaters the Blackhawks forward unit doesn't have much to offer in terms of goalscoring. Without Toews, the centers for the Blackhawks are truly lackluster. Without play-driving centers, there's only so much that can be done. As the Wings found out last season, it's relatively easy to counter an offense that only features a few truly threatening players.
Detroit Red Wings vs Chicago Blackhawks History
When looking into the all-time record between teams, nostalgia flows and remembrance of a better time truly comes to light. Although it's hardly Detroit versus Colorado, the rivalry between the Wings and Hawks was a rollercoaster of fun and excitement for decades. The Wings, despite recent struggles, have a strong lead all-time against the Hawks, going 407-329-84 against them throughout history. Chicago won't be taking the lead in the all-time series anytime soon.
In more recent history the Wings have suffered against the Hawks, including going 15-26-0 in the 2010s. Since the Wings moved to Little Caesar's Arena, they are 2-1-1 against the Blackhawks at home, winning the last game against them at LCA on March 6th, 2020, by a final tally of 2-1.
Most Detroit fans will readily admit that the Wings aren't yet close to sniffing a playoff entry. They'll readily admit that the Wings if by some miracle making the playoffs, wouldn't do any significant damage there, especially when considering Tampa Bay would likely be their first opponent if they did somehow make it. Through 4 games and a 0.500 record, most Wings fans remain complacent with an improved roster but reserve their optimism for playoffs until more changes are made and more prospects develop.
Overall
So Detroit fans, myself included, have to find joy where there is some. The 2021 Basement Bowl between Detroit and Chicago will be that joy. Both teams are, frankly, bad, which adds excitement to the two facing off, especially given the nostalgic feel of Chicago versus Detroit. Chicago is the one team in the division that night in and night out I can comfortably place behind Detroit. Each game should favor Detroit, pending roster issues, and Detroit should be able to finish ahead of Chicago in the division.
As we learned from the lottery over the summer, finishing dead last isn't the best thing for the lottery, and beating Chicago in a season series is going to feel awfully nice. Maybe we can raise a banner for it?
Chicago comes into tonight's game still searching for their first win of the season at 0-3-1. They'll be hard-pressed to find that win against a determined Detroit squad, who despite every ounce of logic and knowledge will be considered an "underdog" by PHT and others.
Detroit vs Chicago
8 PM EST, Tonight's Venue: The United Center
Detroit’s ALL-TIme Record at the United Center: 31-19-3-8
DET Record: 2-2-0
CBJ Record: 0-3-1
Season Series: 0-0-0
Goaltender Matchup
Goaltender DET:
Goaltender CHI:
Players to watch (DET): A. Mantha, B. Ryan, G. Smith
Players to watch (CHI): A. Boqvist, P. Kane, A. DeBrincat
DET Puckline: +1.5 (-220), Moneyline: +118
CHI Puckline: -1.5 (+180), Moneyline: -137
Over/Under: 6
Jesse's Prediction: 5-2 DET
Matt's Prediction: 3-2 DET
Mike's Prediction:
