Tampa for Dummies and Game Prediction
Given the odd ending to the 2019/2020 NHL season, and the even odder playoffs that followed in the middle of the summer, it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise to many NHL fans across the globe that the 2020/2021 season will have its own complications and abnormalities.
A shortened season, only 56 games, pales in comparison on a scale of abnormality when compared to the new divisions that will dictate opponents and playoff chances for this season only. Most NHL executives remain optimistic that the 2021/2022 NHL season should feature a return to almost entirely normal.
In the meantime, new divisions mean new opponents. It wasn’t always the way, but fans have gotten used to the idea of their favorite team facing off against each team in the league on at least two occasions, with inner-conference and inner-division opponents and rivals being more frequent opponents.
This year, however, until teams make it relatively deep into the playoffs, teams will only face the other teams within their division. Being part of the Central division, Detroit will be facing off against the other seven teams (Carolina Hurricanes, Chicago Blackhawks, Columbus Blue Jackets, Dallas Stars, Florida Panthers, Nashville, Tampa Bay) eight times each throughout the season, with the top four teams in the Division at season’s end given a playoff berth.
Of the seven other teams in the division, only Florida and Tampa Bay join the Red Wings as familiar opponents from the Atlantic Division. The division that Detroit has called home since the 2013/2014 NHL season. With so many new rivals, what does each new Divisional Rival have in store for Detroit?
Let’s take a deeper look at Central Opponents by continuing with Detroit’s sixth opponent of the 2021 season: The Tampa Bay Lightning
2021 Tampa Lightning vs Detroit Red Wings
A common turn of phrase in our articles has been “let’s not sugar coat it”. Essentially referencing the fact that we are overmatched in the upcoming series due to our status as rebuilders.
This week is no different with the Red Wings flying south to Tampa Bay to take on the defending Stanley Cup Champions.
The Red Wings are 1-8-1 in their last 10 games vs the Tampa Bay Lightning. That win came as the second to last game of the 2019-20 campaign, with Dylan Larkin and Robby Fabbri scoring two shootout goals in-a-row after Bernier stoned Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point.
While the record over the last 10 games is incredibly one-sided, the last 5 meetings have been decided by 1 goal. The difference-maker, between these two teams (as is similar with most of Detroit’s opponents), is the firepower on the power play.
In the last three games against the Red Wings, Tampa Bay’s power play was successful on 40% of their chances, while Detroit was only successful on 12.5% of their chances. With the Red Wings currently ranked 31st in penalty kill%, look for this to be the deciding factor for many games this season, but most assuredly against the Lightning. Especially with Superstar Steven Stamkos having scored power-play goals in consecutive games and the entire team having scored on the PP in 3 of their last 4.
Missing from the elite ranks of the Lightning offense will be former MVP, Nikita Kucherov. While deciding to take the shortened season as the time to heal an injured hip, the Lightning who usually prevails without the likes of Stamkos will test their ability to thrive with Kuch. So far, the 5-1-1 record says they have the depth to handle it.
Defense Comparisons
I mean…where do you start? The Red Wings are seeing improvements with Troy Stetcher dragging Marc Staal up and down the ice. Jon Merrill has passed the eye-ball test, but his advanced analytics say he’s allowing more expected goals than he is bringing to the ice.
And one individual who I would’ve pegged as a ‘nothing to worry about here’ kind of player, Filip Hronek has struggled mightily. He is second in High Danger Corsi Against, at 30, and is sitting at a less than impressive 43.63% on expected goals. When your ‘best defensemen’ scores out as a liability, things aren’t looking good.
So hopping on over to the Stanley Cup Champions, all but one defender (Callan Foote) has an expected-goals-for-percentage above 50%. The percentage above 50% equates to more offense generated than you are giving up.
Take note, Callan Foote has been used as a 7th defender behind Mikhail Sergachev, Luke Schenn, Jan Rutta, Ryan McDonagh, Erik Cernak, and Victor Hedman. Don’t expect his 9 minutes of ice-time to swing the pendulum in our favor.
Most of the work goes to the super-mega elite defender, Victor Hedman. Hedman has already racked up 8 points in 7 games this season. While the 5-on-5 analytics don’t tell the whole story, his power-play time has already generated 5 goals in 7 games. Hedman is an all situations d-man and he’ll use his giant frame to knock some sense back into you if you forget it.
While we watch Hedman in awe, don’t forget that this team won a cup because underneath Hedman is a list of all-star defensemen, like the previously mentioned Mikhail Sergachev and Ryan McDonagh.
Goalies Comparisons
Oh boy. (Wipes sweat from brow)
This felt like a spot(when comparing tandems at the beginning of the season) where we could muster a dent on the full-fledged armory, that is the Tampa Bay Lightning. However the Tampa Lightning have yet to use anybody but former Vezina winning goaltender, Andrei Vasilevskiy. It’s early, but he’s currently on pace to have his best season in regard to save percentage and goals against. It’s early…but it’s also a fact.
The clear winner each night will be Vasilevskiy, however, the Lightning did not feel it to be necessary to put him out there against Detroit last season and instead played Curtis McElhinney. McElhinney put together one very good game, against Detroit (.950 SV% and 1 GA) and a very bad game (.857 SV% and 4 GA).
If McElhinney is in the net, give the edge to the Wings. Despite the numbers not being so great for either Thomas Greiss (.897 SV% and 3.03 GAA) or Jonathan Bernier (.881 SV% and 3.54 GAA), the talent is there. Their numbers this year will be a product of the roster in front of them. And as we discussed and will continue to discuss, it isn’t close to the elite status that Tampa Bay can throw out.
Forward Comparisons
Oh Jeez. (Realizing there’s too much sweat to clear brow)
Look. The Red Wings forwards are able to put together formidable periods against their opponents. And when it comes to building a core of winning athletes, the likes of Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha, and Tyler Bertuzzi have their spots to fill.
However, the spots they currently fill for the Detroit Red Wings would not be the same role for a team of the high caliber talent the Tampa Bay Lightning can boast. The Red Wings are ranked second in this battle of two groups of forwards, even with Nikita Kucherov being out for the season. And that’s okay, because we’re still building and growing. But when it comes to preparing for these two games against the Tampa Bay Lighting…hold on tight.
Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point, and Anthony Cirelli all sit at a point per game and you can expect the end of the season to look the same. For comparison sake, Anthony Mantha is easily our best producer from an expected goal for perspective. He sits at 6.12 xGF while Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point are at 7.85 and 7.48 respectively, even though they have played 3 less games and Point has less average time on ice.
As the Red Wings have been hoping to get some help from the returning Robby Fabbri and Filip Zadina (returning on Friday), they have now lost Tyler Bertuzzi for an extended period and will be looking for someone to match-up with Larkin as well as Tyler did.
Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning History
Even when the Red Wings were trying to steal 1st round victories from the Tampa Bay Lightning a few years ago, there still wasn’t any bad blood. Not from my perspective. The Tampa Bay Lightning are focused on goal scoring and ‘W’s’ and not so much on teaching lessons.
The simple point being they are an easy team to not hate.
There’s also the element of Steve Yzerman having called Tampa Bay home for about a decade. The relationship essentially gave all Red Wings fans a second team to root for while we began to decline.
The all-time record is in the Red Wings favor (30-23-2-5), but as we mentioned in earlier articles in the season, this could be the year a couple of teams try to catch up.
Overall
We are giving the edge to Tampa Bay in all three player groups and their special teams is lightyears beyond Detroit’s. While we should expect the get outshot, outscored, and completely schooled, don’t forget that we pulled out a victory in our final meeting last season.
If the Red Wings are lucky enough to not have to face Andrei Vasilevskiy, they’ll certainly have a chance to keep it close going into the 3rd and then cross their fingers in regards to expected goals conversions.
To be honest and to take off my Red Wings fan hat, it would be silly to look at this upcoming series and predict a win. The Red Wings are outmatched here and, while unfortunate, it shouldn’t be close.
Tyler Bertuzzi being out and getting replace by individuals who had just come out of COVID protocol (which includes limits on exercising and practice availability) will be a hard transition. And with the emphasis on Special Teams for the Red Wings, don’t overlook the fact that Tyler Bertuzzi leads the team in power play points. The struggles could grow with the revolving door of participants.
Detroit vs Tampa Bay
5:30 PM EST, Tonight's Venue: Amalie Arena
Detroit’s All-Time Record at Amalie Arena: 6-16-1-1
DET Record: 2-6-2
TB Record: 5-1-1
Season Series: 0-0-0
Goaltender Matchup (Projected)
Goaltender DET: T. Greiss (.918 SV%, 2.74 GAA)
Goaltender TB: A. Vasilevskiy (.926 SV%, 2.14 GAA)
Players to watch (DET): A. Mantha, R. Fabbri, D. Larkin
Players to watch (TB): S. Stamkos, V. Hedman, A. Cirelli
DET Puckline: +1.5 (+115), Moneyline: +285
TB Puckline: -1.5 (-136), Moneyline: -345
Over/Under: 5.5
Jesse's Prediction: 6-1 TB
Matt's Prediction: 4-2 TB
Mike's Prediction: 6-1 TB
